What’s next?

I’ve not been regular with this blog in 2019 at all. Mainly, I’ve been focused on school, debate, college applications, and a grant I recently won to work on sexual violence. However, I wanna be at least somewhat committed to writing on this blog next year – though I’ll have exams most of the time for the first three months, I’ll try to get a few posts in.

Given that, here are some ideas for posts I’ve been toying around with, as well as some posts I’m sure will be on here in 2020. Making them public will put additional pressure on me to be committed and can function as part of a New Year Resolution.

This isn’t for the whole of 2019 – just the first few months, with no clear time scale, and is only a few ideas.

What is/are the best policy approach(es) to prostitution? I’ve been working on this literature review for nearly a year now – much of it has been spent reading research. Sexual violence is an issue I care a lot about, and I’ve been awarded a grant by Emergent Ventures to do some independent content creation (“independent research,” you could say) on the issue – and this is the first of hopefully a series of articles on that. I already have about ~40% of a draft, so I’m >95% sure this will be up before June next year.

Note: There will also be other articles on sexual violence published next year – perhaps 4–5 – but I try to make those as rigorous as I can, so am not in a position to list the titles/write paragraphs about them yet. 

A review of the Caplan–Glaeser debate on education. Bryan Caplan and Ed Glaeser are two of my favorite economists – and only recently, I discovered that they had a debate on Professor Caplan’s book, The Case Against Education. Most of my “intellectual” background is in competitive debate – in 2019, I was part of the winning team at the World Schools Debating Championships, and was the #1-ranked individual – so I’m thinking I’ll watch (and flow) the entire debate, judge it, and write up an RFD (“reason for decision”).

My school education in retrospect. A personal post, with some themes related to The Case Against Education – basically, a review of Indian school education as I experienced it, and changes I’d make, particularly to the high school curriculum.

How I self-learned some social science as a high school student. Over the past year or so, and continuing onto next year, I’ve been and will be self-learning a lot of economics and political science – introductory economics, comparative politics, intermediate micro and macro (mathematical), introductory sociology, game theory, public economics, development economics (including growth), statistics and probability, econometrics, calculus, linear algebra, and public choice. I wanna talk about some of the conceptual revelations that took some thinking to get (e.g., the first fundamental theorem of welfare economics), some articles that changed the way I thought about various issues in social science (e.g., Michael Munger’s “A Fable of the OC,” Scott Alexander’s “Meditations on Moloch,” Tyler Cowen’s “Are Intuitions About Minimum Wages and Occupational Licensing Consistent?“, and Scott Sumner’s “Why Is Supply and Demand So Confusing?“), and what I’d change if I did it again.

An unscientific survey on sexual harassment. A long time ago, I conducted a highly unscientific survey on sexual harassment – utterly packed with selection bias, for example. However, just for fun – if anything, as practice for me – I wanna do some data analysis and play with the dataset a bit, and post my (undoubtedly hilarious and frail) attempts publicly.

A literature review on capital punishment and homicides. This one is ambitious – maybe 30% probability it actually happens next year – but I wanna write a literature review of research on the subject of whether capital punishment deters homicides. Why this subject? I was heavily involved in online debate for the period of 2015–early 2017 and one of the topics I encountered most frequently – and have read some research on. The issue is very complicated and, as I remember, a lot of the research doesn’t work with very good data/works with weird instrumental variables that don’t make sense a lot of them (not a majority, just “many,” and I don’t remember very well how many).

There’s also two other ideas I have, but neither is well-developed enough to write a coherent/sensible paragraph about yet:

  • How much of a problem is human-caused climate change, if its importance is measured by expected utility * solvability? How should it be prioritized relative to other considerations by governments – particularly of developing countries? This question is probably too big and I will probably narrow in on something specific if I write this.
  • Does urbanization in developing countries pose a threat to food security? An intuition I’ve sort of had, for a bit, is that large scale urbanization in developing countries could threaten the scale of agricultural production – and thus threaten food security. If this intuition holds any weight, it seems like an important negative externality to consider when thinking about rural–urban migration. I wanna investigate this question. Disclaimer: I have absolutely no knowledge of this issue and this paragraph may make absolutely no sense/I may be missing something huge or even obvious.

Would appreciate thoughts from anyone!

Life update

Sorry for the lack of posts – that’s mostly due to four things.

First, I’m working, informally, with an organization in Chennai called Tulir that works on reducing violence – particularly sexual violence – against children. They do tremendous work and I’m currently involved in extensively learning about the inclusion of trans students in the Indian schooling system and about the role of social media platforms in encouraging online harassment (and why simply trying to block access to social media as the state is probably counterproductive). You can check out their website here, though I’m told it hasn’t been updated in a bit. And here’s their Wikipedia page.

Second, I was recently selected as part of the fifth cohort for Emergent Ventures grants for prospective work on disseminating information about the prevalence of sexual violence, the harm it does, and effective tools to reduce its incidence. I’ve been involved in extensive planning and reading – about strategies that are good at collecting and disseminating info, and about some specific public policy related to it (with special attention to the research on decriminalized prostitution). Updates will soon follow – along with a new web page, blog, and possibly even a podcast.

Third, high school has been keeping the rest of my time absolutely filled with work.

Fourth, as you may know, I’m involved in competitive formal debate – especially in the parli formats – to a significant degree, and have represented the Indian national debate team at the World Schools Debating Championships since 2017. We trained for over a month and then debated at two intensive tournaments, including the world championships. It ended pretty well for us: the team I was part of won the championship and I was named the top speaker. This surprises some people who haven’t actually been involved in competitive debate, but who I am today is to a substantial degree a function of it – and I would encourage people to try it out. The Indian Schools Debating Society runs much of the high school debate scene in India, and is staffed by dedicated, hardworking, and brilliant people – do check them out.

Hopefully, once things get less hectic and my Emergent Ventures project is actually up and running, I’ll start posting again.

An unfiltered thought on giving directly

[Content warning: Scrupulosity, discussion of poverty and poverty alleviation, one reference to sexual assault.]

[Epistemic status: I’m really just thinking out loud here, haven’t thought this through at all. Note, also, that this applies only for developing countries. There are entirely different considerations when thinking about developed countries.]

[Updates after main text of the post; my views on this have become much more uncertain, and I was already pretty uncertain.]

Here’s an unfiltered concept/idea (haven’t given it too much thinking).

GiveDirectly is a nonprofit organization—a charity, to be more specific—whose main focus is giving low-income people in Rwanda, Uganda, and Kenya unconditional cash transfers. No strings attached. And they give ~80–90 percent of all money donated to them to low-income people; only about 10–20 percent is spent internally on things like administrative costs. They’re a pretty cool charity for a few reasons. They don’t really have much to prove. Reducing poverty is plausibly a good thing in and of itself. Both in utilitarian terms and in non-utilitarian ones. Furthermore, there’s a lot of evidence backing unconditional cash transfers. Here’s GiveDirectly’s website summarizing the evidence. (You might think there’s a conflict of interest, but actually, there’s a lot of external evidence and GiveDirectly is surprisingly honest about things.) GiveDirectly is well-known in the effective altruist community.

If you live in a developing country—like I do—and you want to donate to an effective charity, it might be a better idea to just give money to someone you know who lives in poverty (so perhaps someone who lives on less than $4 a day). It functionally does the same thing as GiveDirectly—neither places any conditions on giving the money. But there’s a few reasons why giving money to a low-income person in a developing country whom you know could be more effective than donating the equivalent amount of money to GiveDirectly.

First, if you live in a country that’s different than Kenya, Rwanda, or Uganda, then there’s a chance that you have greater obligations to people from your country than people from other countries. Most people are deeply uncertain about which moral values are correct. It’s possible that effective altruism’s utilitarian approach is the correct ethical theory—I happen to be a utilitarian myself. But there’s a good chance I’m wrong. It’s possible that contractualism is correct, it’s possible that virtue ethics are correct, and it’s possible that Kantian deontology is correct. So if there are two actions that seem roughly morally equivalent from the most likely moral theory, but are morally very different from a moral theory that’s less likely but still plausible, we should default to doing the action that’s better according to the less likely moral theory. This is an argument advanced by philosophers who have researched moral uncertainty, such as Will MacAskill and Nick Bostrom (they have slightly different approaches, but both of these apply here). How does this apply in this context? According to utilitarianism, there is no moral difference between helping someone in Uganda, Kenya, or Rwanda and helping someone in your country. According to other ethical theories, you have a greater moral obligation to people who are proximate to you, whether in space or in time. And I haven’t heard of a ethical theory that says you have a greater obligation to people who are far away from you or ethically distant—it seems like a less likely ethical theory, in any case. Therefore, you should default to helping equally poor people who you know.

Second, it often makes you more likely to want to give more money to poverty alleviation in the future. There’s something disconnected about the typical effective altruist approach. The things they’re saying might be technically morally correct, but many people have a moral intuition that it is justified for them to help out in the specific areas that they have a personal connection to—whether it’s an ordinary person helping out someone they know in need or a survivor of sexual assault (like myself) wanting to donate to a charity that specializes in helping other sexual assault survivors. Thus, there’s some non-zero chance that the disconnected effective altruist approach actually discourages charitable donation because you don’t feel as good about giving to charity as you would otherwise. At the same time, completely disregarding the effective altruist approach is unfair to the people who need your money the most. However, giving money to a very poor person who you know has a dual benefit—it meets both the effective altruist standard and the personal connection standard. It makes you feel better about what you’re doing. You can often see the impact happen in front of you. And that makes you more likely, consciously or subconsciously, to do it in the future.

Third, in some cases, you are in a position to give other people financial advice—whether it’s how to save money or how to spend it effectively. If you can couple your giving money with advice—if the advice is solicited or you know the person well enough to give it, of course—making it even better at reducing poverty or improving the quality of life of people. Economist Chris Blattman notes:

I think of the time that I’ve spent helping people think through what their options are, and reevaluating those opportunities suddenly changes all of their returns to investment. So that kind of advising and mentoring and connection is unusually powerful.

There’s an important caveat here: GiveDirectly produces another good. That good is research. GiveDirectly conducts randomized controlled trials and checks whether its programs are effective. This is really useful because it informs other charities and other policymakers who are designing social policy. However, I suspect that there’s a good chance that it’s a better idea to give money to someone who is at risk who you know personally.

Update 1

A friend points out that this post doesn’t take into account the effects of scale. So, for example, a $100 cash transfer to a single family is more effective than $4 cash transfers to twenty-five different families. For people with limited money to give on a charitable donation, giving the money to GiveDirectly allows resources from different people—often on different ends of the earth—to be pooled together and donated with reasonable scale. However, a lot of this still applies if you donate a fairly large amount, e.g., the difference between  $100 donations to five different people and one $500 donation is smaller than the difference between $50 donations to ten different people and one $500 donation.

Update 2

My debate coach points out a bunch of smart things—that is, advantages that donating to GiveDirectly has that simply giving money to a low-income person you know wouldn’t have—that I didn’t think of:

  • In many contexts, giving money to someone you know could create a sense of obligation on their part, e.g., giving money to a poor employee or janitor could create, on their part, a sense of obligation that they should work a few extra hours overtime, or that they should try and repay you as soon as possible. This would mean the net effect of my proposal could be zero or even negative.
  • There’s another reason why scale is often important: because organizations like GiveDirectly often give money to many people in the same community. This could have an added positive effect—because it could mean the community could work together to do things like set up self-help groups that allow for the pooling together of resources to do things like borrow money from financial institutions, or to set up cooperative societies, or even the setting up of public goods. However, this must be balanced against potential negative externalities of sudden cash injections into communities, such as a possible higher cost of living.

Hello

I’ve blogged before. So, the point of this new blog is for me to blog with a bit more epistemic humility – and being a bit more willing to question my own opinions. That’s pretty much it. 

I wrote a longer version of this earlier, but it seems to have been deleted. In any case, I’m going to be try to be regular with posts (and to remember to always write them in Google Docs so I don’t lose them).

In other news, here’s a TED talk by Julia Galef that I found interesting.